{"id":5142,"date":"2012-09-13T10:02:00","date_gmt":"2012-09-13T08:02:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.pentainvestments.com\/porovnanie-sucasneho-stavu-a-perspektivy-vyvoja-na-trhu-kancelarskych-nehnutelnosti-v-prahe-bratislave-a-varsave\/"},"modified":"2012-09-13T10:02:00","modified_gmt":"2012-09-13T08:02:00","slug":"porovnanie-sucasneho-stavu-a-perspektivy-vyvoja-na-trhu-kancelarskych-nehnutelnosti-v-prahe-bratislave-a-varsave","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.pentainvestments.com\/cs\/porovnanie-sucasneho-stavu-a-perspektivy-vyvoja-na-trhu-kancelarskych-nehnutelnosti-v-prahe-bratislave-a-varsave\/","title":{"rendered":"Porovnanie s\u00fa\u010dasn\u00e9ho stavu a perspekt\u00edvy v\u00fdvoja na trhu kancel\u00e1rskych nehnute\u013enost\u00ed v Prahe, Bratislave a Var\u0161ave"},"content":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Zhrnutie: <\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Najlikvidnej\u0161\u00edm a\u00a0najakt\u00edvnej\u0161\u00edm realitn\u00fdm trhom v\u00a0s\u00fa\u010dasnom obdob\u00ed v\u00a0strednej Eur\u00f3pe je Var\u0161ava, ktor\u00e1 napriek kr\u00edze za\u017e\u00edva pokra\u010duj\u00faci stavebn\u00fd boom prejavuj\u00faci sa rekordn\u00fdm objemom budov vo v\u00fdstavbe. V\u00a0najbli\u017e\u0161\u00edch 18 mesiacoch pl\u00e1nuj\u00fa developeri vo Var\u0161ave postavi\u0165 a\u017e 430\u00a0000 m2 kancel\u00e1rskej plochy.<\/li>\n<li>Pod\u013ea na\u0161ich odhadov by v\u00a0horizonte piatich rokov mala by\u0165 Praha schopn\u00e1 absorbova\u0165 cca 100 tis. m2 prenaj\u00edmate\u013enej kancel\u00e1rskej plochy ro\u010dne. V\u00a0Bratislave, vzh\u013eadom na s\u00fa\u010dasn\u00e9 prez\u00e1sobenie trhu, bude posta\u010duj\u00face vystava\u0165 cca 40-50 tis. m2 za rok.<\/li>\n<li>Otv\u00e1ra\u0165 nov\u00e9 kancel\u00e1rske lokality si dovolia len developeri s\u00a0dostatkom vo\u013en\u00fdch zdrojov a\u00a0s\u00a0dlhodob\u00fdm investi\u010dn\u00fdm horizontom.<\/li>\n<li>Samozrejmos\u0165ou \u00faspe\u0161n\u00fdch projektov bude vysok\u00e1 technick\u00e1 kvalita a efektivita budov sp\u013a\u0148aj\u00faca po\u017eiadavky A+ kategoriz\u00e1cie, dodr\u017eanie najnov\u0161\u00edch trendov v oblasti BMS (technick\u00e9ho zabezpe\u010denia budov), delite\u013enosti priestorov, bezpe\u010dnosti, dostupnosti \u010di pohodlia parkovania. Nevyhnutnos\u0165ou bude kategoriz\u00e1cia budov pod\u013ea niektor\u00e9ho z dostupn\u00fdch a n\u00e1jomcami preferovan\u00fdch syst\u00e9mov zelenej certifik\u00e1cie.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>1. Aktu\u00e1lny stav na trhu<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Na z\u00e1klade aktu\u00e1lnych \u0161tatistick\u00fdch d\u00e1t bolo ku koncu j\u00fana tohto roka vo Var\u0161ave v\u00a0ponuke 3,7 mil. m2 modern\u00fdch kancel\u00e1ri\u00ed kateg\u00f3rie A\u00a0alebo B, v\u00a0Prahe to bolo 2,86 mil. m2 a\u00a0v\u00a0Bratislave 1,47 mil. m2. Vo v\u0161etk\u00fdch troch mest\u00e1ch zhodne cca 60%-70% ponuky tvoria novostavby, zvy\u0161ok s\u00fa rekon\u0161trukcie star\u0161\u00edch objektov. Miera neobsadenosti dosahovala 7,4% vo Var\u0161ave, 11,5% v\u00a0Prahe a\u00a010,7% v\u00a0Bratislave.<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Spolo\u010dn\u00fdm menovate\u013eom pra\u017esk\u00e9ho, bratislavsk\u00e9ho a\u00a0var\u0161avsk\u00e9ho trhu bol v\u00a0posledn\u00fdch desiatich rokoch siln\u00fd rast ponuky modern\u00fdch kancel\u00e1rskych priestorov, ktor\u00fd sa za toto obdobie vo v\u0161etk\u00fdch troch mest\u00e1ch viac ako zdvojn\u00e1sobil.<\/li>\n<li>Najdynamickej\u0161ie r\u00e1stla ponuka v\u00a0Bratislave (CAGR 10%), ktor\u00e1 za\u017eila developersk\u00fd boom s\u00a0miernym oneskoren\u00edm v\u00a0porovnan\u00ed s\u00a0ostatn\u00fdmi hlavn\u00fdmi mestami regi\u00f3nu Strednej Eur\u00f3py. Prudko rast\u00faca ponuka nov\u00fdch administrat\u00edvnych komplexov, vo v\u00e4\u010d\u0161ej \u010di men\u0161ej miere odr\u00e1\u017eaj\u00faca re\u00e1lne priestorov\u00e9 potreby lok\u00e1lne etablovan\u00fdch firiem, v\u0161ak bola pozna\u010den\u00e1 turbulenciami na finan\u010dn\u00fdch trhoch a\u00a0n\u00e1sledn\u00fdm n\u00e1stupom kr\u00edzy v re\u00e1lnej ekonomike.<\/li>\n<li>Realitn\u00fd trh bol navy\u0161e zasiahnut\u00fd zn\u00ed\u017eenou \u00faverovou kapacitou b\u00e1nk (\u017eiadne akvizi\u010dn\u00e9 financovanie, v\u00fdrazne spr\u00edsnen\u00e9 podmienky stavebn\u00e9ho a\u00a0investi\u010dn\u00e9ho financovania), \u010do malo za n\u00e1sledok o\u010distenie trhu o\u00a0tzv. leverage players (investorov financuj\u00facich v\u00fdstavbu prostredn\u00edctvom bankov\u00e9ho dlhu) a\u00a0posilnenie poz\u00edcie equity siln\u00fdch developerov schopn\u00fdch stava\u0165 \u0161pekulat\u00edvne z\u00a0vlastn\u00fdch zdrojov a bez zabezpe\u010den\u00e9ho predpren\u00e1jmu.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>V\u0161etky tri mest\u00e1 zaznamenali v\u00a0roku 2009 medziro\u010dn\u00fd pokles dopytu <\/strong>(vo Var\u0161ave sa dopyt v\u00a0roku 2009 prepadol o\u00a046%, v\u00a0Bratislave a\u017e o\u00a055%, v Prahe to bolo len o \u00a05%, av\u0161ak prepad pokra\u010doval aj roku 2010 o 13%), ktor\u00fd sa prejavil v\u00a0raste miery neobsadenosti a\u00a0v poklese nomin\u00e1lneho i\u00a0efekt\u00edvneho n\u00e1jomn\u00e9ho (n\u00e1jomn\u00e9, ktor\u00e9 je zaplaten\u00e9 po zoh\u013eadnen\u00ed zliav poskytnut\u00fdch majite\u013eom budovy; naj\u010dastej\u0161ie sa jedn\u00e1 o\u00a0n\u00e1jomn\u00e9 pr\u00e1zdniny a\u00a0dot\u00e1cie poskytnut\u00e9 na dovybavenie priestoru n\u00e1jomcu).<\/p>\n<p>Podiel pr\u00e1zdnych kancel\u00e1ri\u00ed na celkovej ponuke presiahol v\u00a0Prahe i\u00a0v Bratislave hranicu 10% (najvy\u0161\u0161iu neobsadenos\u0165 zachytili \u0161tatistiky za\u010diatkom roku 2010, konkr\u00e9tne 13,8% v\u00a0Prahe a 14,2% v Bratislave). Var\u0161ava, podporen\u00e1 siln\u00fdmi makroekonomick\u00fdmi fundamentmi po\u013eskej ekonomiky, zostala relat\u00edvne im\u00fanna vo\u010di glob\u00e1lnym trendom. Miera neobsadenosti s\u00edce vzr\u00e1stla, zostala v\u0161ak pod \u00farov\u0148ou 7,5%.<\/p>\n<p>Najvy\u0161\u0161ie dosahovan\u00e9 n\u00e1jomn\u00e9 v\u00a0obdob\u00ed vrcholiaceho realitn\u00e9ho cyklu prekra\u010dovalo vo Var\u0161ave hranicu 32 EUR\/ m2\/mesiac, v\u00a0Prahe to bolo 23 EUR\/ m2\/mesiac a\u00a0v\u00a0Bratislave 18 EUR\/ m2\/mesiac. N\u00e1sledne kleslo o\u00a05%-15% k\u00a0hranici, na ktorej sa udr\u017euje aj v\u00a0s\u00fa\u010dasnosti. \u010co ofici\u00e1lne \u0161tatistiky neboli schopn\u00e9 zachyti\u0165, bol ove\u013ea v\u00fdraznej\u0161\u00ed pokles efekt\u00edvneho n\u00e1jomn\u00e9ho, ktor\u00e9 v\u00a0z\u00e1vislosti od projektu a\u00a0mikrolokality kleslo od 10%-30%.<\/p>\n<p><strong>2. Odhad bud\u00faceho v\u00fdvoja<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Najlikvidnej\u0161\u00edm a\u00a0najakt\u00edvnej\u0161\u00edm realitn\u00fdm trhom v\u00a0s\u00fa\u010dasnom obdob\u00ed v\u00a0Strednej Eur\u00f3pe je Var\u0161ava, ktor\u00e1 napriek kr\u00edze za\u017e\u00edva pokra\u010duj\u00faci stavebn\u00fd boom prejavuj\u00faci sa rekordn\u00fdm objemom budov vo v\u00fdstavbe<\/strong> (v najbli\u017e\u0161\u00edch 18 mesiacoch pl\u00e1nuj\u00fa developeri vystava\u0165 viac ako 430 000 m2 nov\u00fdch kancel\u00e1rskych priestorov, pri\u010dom\u00a0do konca roku 2014 by stock mohol vzr\u00e1s\u0165 a\u017e o\u00a020% v\u00a0porovnan\u00ed so s\u00fa\u010dasn\u00fdm stavom).<\/p>\n<p>Var\u0161ava predstavuje jednozna\u010dne najsilnej\u0161\u00ed leasingov\u00fd trh v regi\u00f3ne, ke\u010f v\u00a0minulom roku sa v\u00a0meste prenajalo rekordn\u00fdch 573 tis\u00edc m2 (30% tvorili renegoci\u00e1cie n\u00e1jomn\u00fdch zml\u00fav). V\u00a0roku 2012 sa\u00a0pravdepodobne dosiahne porovnate\u013en\u00fd objem hrub\u00e9ho dopytu. Napriek tomu v\u0161ak kon\u0161tatujeme, \u017ee z\u00a0kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9ho h\u013eadiska Var\u0161ava vykazuje znaky prehriatia trhu, \u010do bude ma\u0165 vplyv na rast neobsadenosti a\u00a0pokles n\u00e1jomn\u00e9ho, a to predov\u0161etk\u00fdm v\u00a0menej atrakt\u00edvnych resp. sekund\u00e1rnych lokalit\u00e1ch (napr. Mokot\u00f3w, Ochota, Wlochy, Wola). V\u00a0CBD (v lokalite s\u00a0najv\u00e4\u010d\u0161ou koncentr\u00e1ciou atrakt\u00edvnych administrat\u00edvnych priestorov) o\u010dak\u00e1vame vzh\u013eadom na relat\u00edvne obmedzen\u00fd pipeline stabiliz\u00e1ciu nomin\u00e1lneho n\u00e1jomn\u00e9ho s\u00a0miernym poklesom efekt\u00edvneho n\u00e1jomn\u00e9ho. Miera neobsadenosti bude kr\u00e1tkodobo r\u00e1s\u0165, v\u00a0horizonte najbli\u017e\u0161\u00edch piatich rokov by v\u0161ak nemala prekro\u010di\u0165 10%. Pod\u013ea na\u0161ich odhadov by zo stredno- a\u00a0dlhodob\u00e9ho h\u013eadiska Var\u0161ava mala by\u0165 schopn\u00e1 ro\u010dne absorbova\u0165 160-180 tis\u00edc m2 nov\u00fdch pl\u00f4ch bez tlaku na rast neobsadenosti a\u00a0pokles n\u00e1jomn\u00e9ho.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Prahu a\u00a0Bratislavu zasiahla kr\u00edza podstatne v\u00fdraznej\u0161ie. Okrem poklesu n\u00e1jomn\u00e9ho do\u0161lo v\u00a0oboch mest\u00e1ch k\u00a0prudk\u00e9mu prepadu novej v\u00fdstavby.<\/strong> A\u017e na p\u00e1r v\u00fdnimiek vo v\u00fdstavbe s\u00fa len projekty siln\u00fdch developerov pripraven\u00fdch stava\u0165 bez bankov\u00e9ho financovania, schopn\u00fdch prelomi\u0165 za\u010darovan\u00fd kruh, ke\u010f firmy nie s\u00fa ochotn\u00e9 viaza\u0165 sa k\u00a0projektom v\u00a0pr\u00edpravnej f\u00e1ze, \u010do n\u00e1sledne limituje schopnos\u0165 developerov z\u00edska\u0165 extern\u00e9 financovanie na v\u00fdstavbu. Z\u00a0toho d\u00f4vodu bude v\u00a0roku 2013 v\u00a0Prahe skolaudovan\u00fdch len cca 70-75 tis. m2 kancel\u00e1rskych pl\u00f4ch, v\u00a0Bratislave len cca 35-40 tis. m2, \u010do je menej ne\u017e polovica priemeru posledn\u00fdch piatich rokov. Z\u00a0kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9ho h\u013eadiska preto na t\u00fdchto trhoch o\u010dak\u00e1vame v\u00fdrazne men\u0161\u00ed tlak na pokles n\u00e1jomn\u00e9ho ne\u017e vo Var\u0161ave. Faktorom tla\u010diacim na pokles n\u00e1jomn\u00e9ho je predov\u0161etk\u00fdm vysok\u00fd podiel renegoci\u00e1ci\u00ed (a\u017e do 40%) na hrubom dopyte. N\u00e1jomn\u00edci s\u00fa v\u00a0s\u00fa\u010dasn\u00fdch podmienkach schopn\u00ed vyjedna\u0165 v\u00a0oboch mest\u00e1ch v\u00fdhodnej\u0161ie n\u00e1jomn\u00e9 podmienky ne\u017e pred tromi rokmi.<\/p>\n<p>Pokra\u010duj\u00face \u00fasporn\u00e9 opatrenia firiem n\u00fatia landlordov zni\u017eova\u0165 svoje o\u010dak\u00e1vania predov\u0161etk\u00fdm v\u00a0star\u0161\u00edch (viac ako 5 ro\u010dn\u00fdch) budov\u00e1ch. Zo strednodob\u00e9ho h\u013eadiska nomin\u00e1lne n\u00e1jomn\u00e9 zostane stabiln\u00e9, hlavn\u00fdm potenci\u00e1lnym zdrojom jeho rastu bude o\u010dak\u00e1van\u00e1 zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e1 infl\u00e1cia v\u00a0Euroz\u00f3ne. Pod\u013ea na\u0161ich odhadov by v\u00a0horizonte piatich rokov mala by\u0165 Praha schopn\u00e1 absorbova\u0165 cca 100 tis. m2 ro\u010dne. V\u00a0Bratislave vzh\u013eadom na s\u00fa\u010dasn\u00e9 prez\u00e1sobenie trhu bude posta\u010duj\u00face vystava\u0165 cca 40-50 tis. m2 za rok. Za t\u00fdchto predpokladov by sa miera neobsadenosti nemala v\u00fdraznej\u0161ie odchy\u013eova\u0165 od 10%. O\u010dak\u00e1vame, \u017ee podiel renegoci\u00e1ci\u00ed na \u00farovni 30% sa stane be\u017enou s\u00fa\u010das\u0165ou trhu.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Pr\u00edle\u017eitos\u0165ou pre developerov vo v\u0161etk\u00fdch troch mest\u00e1ch bud\u00fa okrem build-to-suit <\/strong>(budov postaven\u00fdch na mieru vopred zn\u00e1memu konkr\u00e9tnemu n\u00e1jomcovi)<strong> aj \u0161pekulat\u00edvne projekty v\u00a0rozvinut\u00fdch business centr\u00e1ch s\u00a0kvalitnou a vybudovanou infra\u0161trukt\u00farou a\u00a0dobrou dopravnou dostupnos\u0165ou.<\/strong> St\u00e1le atrakt\u00edvne zostan\u00fa centr\u00e1 resp. CBD jednotliv\u00fdch miest, zv\u00e4\u010d\u0161a s\u00a0v\u00fdrazne limitovanou dostupnos\u0165ou vhodn\u00fdch pozemkov (hlavne v\u00a0Prahe). Otv\u00e1ra\u0165 nov\u00e9 kancel\u00e1rske lokality si dovolia len developeri s\u00a0dostatkom vo\u013en\u00fdch zdrojov a\u00a0s\u00a0dlhodob\u00fdm investi\u010dn\u00fdm horizontom. Pr\u00edle\u017eitos\u0165ou v\u00a0tomto smere s\u00fa okrajov\u00e9 mestsk\u00e9 \u010dasti s\u00a0dostupnos\u0165ou lacn\u00fdch pozemkov. Samozrejmos\u0165ou je vysok\u00e1 technick\u00e1 kvalita a\u00a0efektivita budov sp\u013a\u0148aj\u00faca po\u017eiadavky A+ kategoriz\u00e1cie, dodr\u017eanie najnov\u0161\u00edch trendov v\u00a0oblasti BMS, delite\u013enosti priestorov, bezpe\u010dnosti, dostupnosti, \u010di pohodlia parkovania. Nevyhnutnos\u0165ou bude kategoriz\u00e1cia budov pod\u013ea niektor\u00e9ho z\u00a0dostupn\u00fdch a\u00a0n\u00e1jomcami preferovan\u00fdch syst\u00e9mov zelenej certifik\u00e1cie. V\u00a0neposlednom rade je nutn\u00e9 poznamena\u0165, \u017ee k\u013e\u00fa\u010dov\u00fdm faktorom bud\u00faceho v\u00fdvoja resp. o\u017eivenia realitn\u00e9ho trhu bude zvl\u00e1dnutie aktu\u00e1lnych makroekonomick\u00fdch v\u00fdziev v\u00a0glob\u00e1lnej a\u00a0najm\u00e4 eur\u00f3pskej ekonomike.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[61],"class_list":["post-5142","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-tiskove-zpravy"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Porovnanie s\u00fa\u010dasn\u00e9ho stavu a perspekt\u00edvy v\u00fdvoja na trhu kancel\u00e1rskych nehnute\u013enost\u00ed v Prahe, Bratislave a Var\u0161ave &#8212; Penta Investments<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.pentainvestments.com\/cs\/porovnanie-sucasneho-stavu-a-perspektivy-vyvoja-na-trhu-kancelarskych-nehnutelnosti-v-prahe-bratislave-a-varsave\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"cs_CZ\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Porovnanie s\u00fa\u010dasn\u00e9ho stavu a perspekt\u00edvy v\u00fdvoja na trhu kancel\u00e1rskych nehnute\u013enost\u00ed v Prahe, Bratislave a Var\u0161ave &#8212; Penta Investments\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Zhrnutie:  Najlikvidnej\u0161\u00edm a\u00a0najakt\u00edvnej\u0161\u00edm realitn\u00fdm trhom v\u00a0s\u00fa\u010dasnom obdob\u00ed v\u00a0strednej Eur\u00f3pe je Var\u0161ava, ktor\u00e1 napriek kr\u00edze za\u017e\u00edva pokra\u010duj\u00faci stavebn\u00fd boom prejavuj\u00faci sa rekordn\u00fdm objemom budov vo v\u00fdstavbe. V\u00a0najbli\u017e\u0161\u00edch 18 mesiacoch pl\u00e1nuj\u00fa developeri vo Var\u0161ave postavi\u0165 a\u017e 430\u00a0000 m2 kancel\u00e1rskej plochy. Pod\u013ea na\u0161ich odhadov by v\u00a0horizonte piatich rokov mala by\u0165 Praha schopn\u00e1 absorbova\u0165 cca 100 tis. m2 prenaj\u00edmate\u013enej kancel\u00e1rskej plochy ro\u010dne. V\u00a0Bratislave, vzh\u013eadom na s\u00fa\u010dasn\u00e9 prez\u00e1sobenie trhu, bude posta\u010duj\u00face vystava\u0165 cca 40-50 tis. m2 za rok. Otv\u00e1ra\u0165 nov\u00e9 kancel\u00e1rske lokality si dovolia len developeri s\u00a0dostatkom vo\u013en\u00fdch zdrojov a\u00a0s\u00a0dlhodob\u00fdm investi\u010dn\u00fdm horizontom. Samozrejmos\u0165ou \u00faspe\u0161n\u00fdch projektov bude vysok\u00e1 technick\u00e1 kvalita a efektivita budov sp\u013a\u0148aj\u00faca po\u017eiadavky A+ kategoriz\u00e1cie, dodr\u017eanie najnov\u0161\u00edch trendov v oblasti BMS (technick\u00e9ho zabezpe\u010denia budov), delite\u013enosti priestorov, bezpe\u010dnosti, dostupnosti \u010di pohodlia parkovania. Nevyhnutnos\u0165ou bude kategoriz\u00e1cia budov pod\u013ea niektor\u00e9ho z dostupn\u00fdch a n\u00e1jomcami preferovan\u00fdch syst\u00e9mov zelenej certifik\u00e1cie. 1. Aktu\u00e1lny stav na trhu Na z\u00e1klade aktu\u00e1lnych \u0161tatistick\u00fdch d\u00e1t bolo ku koncu j\u00fana tohto roka vo Var\u0161ave v\u00a0ponuke 3,7 mil. m2 modern\u00fdch kancel\u00e1ri\u00ed kateg\u00f3rie A\u00a0alebo B, v\u00a0Prahe to bolo 2,86 mil. m2 a\u00a0v\u00a0Bratislave 1,47 mil. m2. Vo v\u0161etk\u00fdch troch mest\u00e1ch zhodne cca 60%-70% ponuky tvoria novostavby, zvy\u0161ok s\u00fa rekon\u0161trukcie star\u0161\u00edch objektov. Miera neobsadenosti dosahovala 7,4% vo Var\u0161ave, 11,5% v\u00a0Prahe a\u00a010,7% v\u00a0Bratislave. Spolo\u010dn\u00fdm menovate\u013eom pra\u017esk\u00e9ho, bratislavsk\u00e9ho a\u00a0var\u0161avsk\u00e9ho trhu bol v\u00a0posledn\u00fdch desiatich rokoch siln\u00fd rast ponuky modern\u00fdch kancel\u00e1rskych priestorov, ktor\u00fd sa za toto obdobie vo v\u0161etk\u00fdch troch mest\u00e1ch viac ako zdvojn\u00e1sobil. Najdynamickej\u0161ie r\u00e1stla ponuka v\u00a0Bratislave (CAGR 10%), ktor\u00e1 za\u017eila developersk\u00fd boom s\u00a0miernym oneskoren\u00edm v\u00a0porovnan\u00ed s\u00a0ostatn\u00fdmi hlavn\u00fdmi mestami regi\u00f3nu Strednej Eur\u00f3py. Prudko rast\u00faca ponuka nov\u00fdch administrat\u00edvnych komplexov, vo v\u00e4\u010d\u0161ej \u010di men\u0161ej miere odr\u00e1\u017eaj\u00faca re\u00e1lne priestorov\u00e9 potreby lok\u00e1lne etablovan\u00fdch firiem, v\u0161ak bola pozna\u010den\u00e1 turbulenciami na finan\u010dn\u00fdch trhoch a\u00a0n\u00e1sledn\u00fdm n\u00e1stupom kr\u00edzy v re\u00e1lnej ekonomike. Realitn\u00fd trh bol navy\u0161e zasiahnut\u00fd zn\u00ed\u017eenou \u00faverovou kapacitou b\u00e1nk (\u017eiadne akvizi\u010dn\u00e9 financovanie, v\u00fdrazne spr\u00edsnen\u00e9 podmienky stavebn\u00e9ho a\u00a0investi\u010dn\u00e9ho financovania), \u010do malo za n\u00e1sledok o\u010distenie trhu o\u00a0tzv. leverage players (investorov financuj\u00facich v\u00fdstavbu prostredn\u00edctvom bankov\u00e9ho dlhu) a\u00a0posilnenie poz\u00edcie equity siln\u00fdch developerov schopn\u00fdch stava\u0165 \u0161pekulat\u00edvne z\u00a0vlastn\u00fdch zdrojov a bez zabezpe\u010den\u00e9ho predpren\u00e1jmu. V\u0161etky tri mest\u00e1 zaznamenali v\u00a0roku 2009 medziro\u010dn\u00fd pokles dopytu (vo Var\u0161ave sa dopyt v\u00a0roku 2009 prepadol o\u00a046%, v\u00a0Bratislave a\u017e o\u00a055%, v Prahe to bolo len o \u00a05%, av\u0161ak prepad pokra\u010doval aj roku 2010 o 13%), ktor\u00fd sa prejavil v\u00a0raste miery neobsadenosti a\u00a0v poklese nomin\u00e1lneho i\u00a0efekt\u00edvneho n\u00e1jomn\u00e9ho (n\u00e1jomn\u00e9, ktor\u00e9 je zaplaten\u00e9 po zoh\u013eadnen\u00ed zliav poskytnut\u00fdch majite\u013eom budovy; naj\u010dastej\u0161ie sa jedn\u00e1 o\u00a0n\u00e1jomn\u00e9 pr\u00e1zdniny a\u00a0dot\u00e1cie poskytnut\u00e9 na dovybavenie priestoru n\u00e1jomcu). Podiel pr\u00e1zdnych kancel\u00e1ri\u00ed na celkovej ponuke presiahol v\u00a0Prahe i\u00a0v Bratislave hranicu 10% (najvy\u0161\u0161iu neobsadenos\u0165 zachytili \u0161tatistiky za\u010diatkom roku 2010, konkr\u00e9tne 13,8% v\u00a0Prahe a 14,2% v Bratislave). Var\u0161ava, podporen\u00e1 siln\u00fdmi makroekonomick\u00fdmi fundamentmi po\u013eskej ekonomiky, zostala relat\u00edvne im\u00fanna vo\u010di glob\u00e1lnym trendom. Miera neobsadenosti s\u00edce vzr\u00e1stla, zostala v\u0161ak pod \u00farov\u0148ou 7,5%. Najvy\u0161\u0161ie dosahovan\u00e9 n\u00e1jomn\u00e9 v\u00a0obdob\u00ed vrcholiaceho realitn\u00e9ho cyklu prekra\u010dovalo vo Var\u0161ave hranicu 32 EUR\/ m2\/mesiac, v\u00a0Prahe to bolo 23 EUR\/ m2\/mesiac a\u00a0v\u00a0Bratislave 18 EUR\/ m2\/mesiac. N\u00e1sledne kleslo o\u00a05%-15% k\u00a0hranici, na ktorej sa udr\u017euje aj v\u00a0s\u00fa\u010dasnosti. \u010co ofici\u00e1lne \u0161tatistiky neboli schopn\u00e9 zachyti\u0165, bol ove\u013ea v\u00fdraznej\u0161\u00ed pokles efekt\u00edvneho n\u00e1jomn\u00e9ho, ktor\u00e9 v\u00a0z\u00e1vislosti od projektu a\u00a0mikrolokality kleslo od 10%-30%. 2. Odhad bud\u00faceho v\u00fdvoja Najlikvidnej\u0161\u00edm a\u00a0najakt\u00edvnej\u0161\u00edm realitn\u00fdm trhom v\u00a0s\u00fa\u010dasnom obdob\u00ed v\u00a0Strednej Eur\u00f3pe je Var\u0161ava, ktor\u00e1 napriek kr\u00edze za\u017e\u00edva pokra\u010duj\u00faci stavebn\u00fd boom prejavuj\u00faci sa rekordn\u00fdm objemom budov vo v\u00fdstavbe (v najbli\u017e\u0161\u00edch 18 mesiacoch pl\u00e1nuj\u00fa developeri vystava\u0165 viac ako 430 000 m2 nov\u00fdch kancel\u00e1rskych priestorov, pri\u010dom\u00a0do konca roku 2014 by stock mohol vzr\u00e1s\u0165 a\u017e o\u00a020% v\u00a0porovnan\u00ed so s\u00fa\u010dasn\u00fdm stavom). Var\u0161ava predstavuje jednozna\u010dne najsilnej\u0161\u00ed leasingov\u00fd trh v regi\u00f3ne, ke\u010f v\u00a0minulom roku sa v\u00a0meste prenajalo rekordn\u00fdch 573 tis\u00edc m2 (30% tvorili renegoci\u00e1cie n\u00e1jomn\u00fdch zml\u00fav). V\u00a0roku 2012 sa\u00a0pravdepodobne dosiahne porovnate\u013en\u00fd objem hrub\u00e9ho dopytu. Napriek tomu v\u0161ak kon\u0161tatujeme, \u017ee z\u00a0kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9ho h\u013eadiska Var\u0161ava vykazuje znaky prehriatia trhu, \u010do bude ma\u0165 vplyv na rast neobsadenosti a\u00a0pokles n\u00e1jomn\u00e9ho, a to predov\u0161etk\u00fdm v\u00a0menej atrakt\u00edvnych resp. sekund\u00e1rnych lokalit\u00e1ch (napr. Mokot\u00f3w, Ochota, Wlochy, Wola). V\u00a0CBD (v lokalite s\u00a0najv\u00e4\u010d\u0161ou koncentr\u00e1ciou atrakt\u00edvnych administrat\u00edvnych priestorov) o\u010dak\u00e1vame vzh\u013eadom na relat\u00edvne obmedzen\u00fd pipeline stabiliz\u00e1ciu nomin\u00e1lneho n\u00e1jomn\u00e9ho s\u00a0miernym poklesom efekt\u00edvneho n\u00e1jomn\u00e9ho. Miera neobsadenosti bude kr\u00e1tkodobo r\u00e1s\u0165, v\u00a0horizonte najbli\u017e\u0161\u00edch piatich rokov by v\u0161ak nemala prekro\u010di\u0165 10%. Pod\u013ea na\u0161ich odhadov by zo stredno- a\u00a0dlhodob\u00e9ho h\u013eadiska Var\u0161ava mala by\u0165 schopn\u00e1 ro\u010dne absorbova\u0165 160-180 tis\u00edc m2 nov\u00fdch pl\u00f4ch bez tlaku na rast neobsadenosti a\u00a0pokles n\u00e1jomn\u00e9ho. Prahu a\u00a0Bratislavu zasiahla kr\u00edza podstatne v\u00fdraznej\u0161ie. Okrem poklesu n\u00e1jomn\u00e9ho do\u0161lo v\u00a0oboch mest\u00e1ch k\u00a0prudk\u00e9mu prepadu novej v\u00fdstavby. A\u017e na p\u00e1r v\u00fdnimiek vo v\u00fdstavbe s\u00fa len projekty siln\u00fdch developerov pripraven\u00fdch stava\u0165 bez bankov\u00e9ho financovania, schopn\u00fdch prelomi\u0165 za\u010darovan\u00fd kruh, ke\u010f firmy nie s\u00fa ochotn\u00e9 viaza\u0165 sa k\u00a0projektom v\u00a0pr\u00edpravnej f\u00e1ze, \u010do n\u00e1sledne limituje schopnos\u0165 developerov z\u00edska\u0165 extern\u00e9 financovanie na v\u00fdstavbu. Z\u00a0toho d\u00f4vodu bude v\u00a0roku 2013 v\u00a0Prahe skolaudovan\u00fdch len cca 70-75 tis. m2 kancel\u00e1rskych pl\u00f4ch, v\u00a0Bratislave len cca 35-40 tis. m2, \u010do je menej ne\u017e polovica priemeru posledn\u00fdch piatich rokov. Z\u00a0kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9ho h\u013eadiska preto na t\u00fdchto trhoch o\u010dak\u00e1vame v\u00fdrazne men\u0161\u00ed tlak na pokles n\u00e1jomn\u00e9ho ne\u017e vo Var\u0161ave. Faktorom tla\u010diacim na pokles n\u00e1jomn\u00e9ho je predov\u0161etk\u00fdm vysok\u00fd podiel renegoci\u00e1ci\u00ed (a\u017e do 40%) na hrubom dopyte. N\u00e1jomn\u00edci s\u00fa v\u00a0s\u00fa\u010dasn\u00fdch podmienkach schopn\u00ed vyjedna\u0165 v\u00a0oboch mest\u00e1ch v\u00fdhodnej\u0161ie n\u00e1jomn\u00e9 podmienky ne\u017e pred tromi rokmi. Pokra\u010duj\u00face \u00fasporn\u00e9 opatrenia firiem n\u00fatia landlordov zni\u017eova\u0165 svoje o\u010dak\u00e1vania predov\u0161etk\u00fdm v\u00a0star\u0161\u00edch (viac ako 5 ro\u010dn\u00fdch) budov\u00e1ch. Zo strednodob\u00e9ho h\u013eadiska nomin\u00e1lne n\u00e1jomn\u00e9 zostane stabiln\u00e9, hlavn\u00fdm potenci\u00e1lnym zdrojom jeho rastu bude o\u010dak\u00e1van\u00e1 zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e1 infl\u00e1cia v\u00a0Euroz\u00f3ne. Pod\u013ea na\u0161ich odhadov by v\u00a0horizonte piatich rokov mala by\u0165 Praha schopn\u00e1 absorbova\u0165 cca 100 tis. m2 ro\u010dne. V\u00a0Bratislave vzh\u013eadom na s\u00fa\u010dasn\u00e9 prez\u00e1sobenie trhu bude posta\u010duj\u00face vystava\u0165 cca 40-50 tis. m2 za rok. Za t\u00fdchto predpokladov by sa miera neobsadenosti nemala v\u00fdraznej\u0161ie odchy\u013eova\u0165 od 10%. O\u010dak\u00e1vame, \u017ee podiel renegoci\u00e1ci\u00ed na \u00farovni 30% sa stane be\u017enou s\u00fa\u010das\u0165ou trhu. Pr\u00edle\u017eitos\u0165ou pre developerov vo v\u0161etk\u00fdch troch mest\u00e1ch bud\u00fa okrem build-to-suit (budov postaven\u00fdch na mieru vopred zn\u00e1memu konkr\u00e9tnemu n\u00e1jomcovi) aj \u0161pekulat\u00edvne projekty v\u00a0rozvinut\u00fdch business centr\u00e1ch s\u00a0kvalitnou a vybudovanou infra\u0161trukt\u00farou a\u00a0dobrou dopravnou dostupnos\u0165ou. St\u00e1le atrakt\u00edvne zostan\u00fa centr\u00e1 resp. CBD jednotliv\u00fdch miest, zv\u00e4\u010d\u0161a s\u00a0v\u00fdrazne limitovanou dostupnos\u0165ou vhodn\u00fdch pozemkov (hlavne v\u00a0Prahe). Otv\u00e1ra\u0165 nov\u00e9 kancel\u00e1rske lokality si dovolia len developeri s\u00a0dostatkom vo\u013en\u00fdch zdrojov a\u00a0s\u00a0dlhodob\u00fdm investi\u010dn\u00fdm horizontom. Pr\u00edle\u017eitos\u0165ou v\u00a0tomto smere s\u00fa okrajov\u00e9 mestsk\u00e9 \u010dasti s\u00a0dostupnos\u0165ou lacn\u00fdch pozemkov. Samozrejmos\u0165ou je vysok\u00e1 technick\u00e1 kvalita a\u00a0efektivita budov sp\u013a\u0148aj\u00faca po\u017eiadavky A+ kategoriz\u00e1cie, dodr\u017eanie najnov\u0161\u00edch trendov v\u00a0oblasti BMS, delite\u013enosti priestorov, bezpe\u010dnosti, dostupnosti, \u010di pohodlia parkovania. Nevyhnutnos\u0165ou bude kategoriz\u00e1cia budov pod\u013ea niektor\u00e9ho z\u00a0dostupn\u00fdch a\u00a0n\u00e1jomcami preferovan\u00fdch syst\u00e9mov zelenej certifik\u00e1cie. V\u00a0neposlednom rade je nutn\u00e9 poznamena\u0165, \u017ee k\u013e\u00fa\u010dov\u00fdm faktorom bud\u00faceho v\u00fdvoja resp. o\u017eivenia realitn\u00e9ho trhu bude zvl\u00e1dnutie aktu\u00e1lnych makroekonomick\u00fdch v\u00fdziev v\u00a0glob\u00e1lnej a\u00a0najm\u00e4 eur\u00f3pskej ekonomike.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.pentainvestments.com\/cs\/porovnanie-sucasneho-stavu-a-perspektivy-vyvoja-na-trhu-kancelarskych-nehnutelnosti-v-prahe-bratislave-a-varsave\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Penta Investments\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2012-09-13T08:02:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Peter Blasbalg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Napsal(a)\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Peter Blasbalg\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.pentainvestments.com\\\/cs\\\/porovnanie-sucasneho-stavu-a-perspektivy-vyvoja-na-trhu-kancelarskych-nehnutelnosti-v-prahe-bratislave-a-varsave\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.pentainvestments.com\\\/cs\\\/porovnanie-sucasneho-stavu-a-perspektivy-vyvoja-na-trhu-kancelarskych-nehnutelnosti-v-prahe-bratislave-a-varsave\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Peter Blasbalg\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.pentainvestments.com\\\/en\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/2b5af56613b6f0b2968a1eb1570816e7\"},\"headline\":\"Porovnanie s\u00fa\u010dasn\u00e9ho stavu a perspekt\u00edvy v\u00fdvoja na trhu kancel\u00e1rskych nehnute\u013enost\u00ed v Prahe, Bratislave a Var\u0161ave\",\"datePublished\":\"2012-09-13T08:02:00+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.pentainvestments.com\\\/cs\\\/porovnanie-sucasneho-stavu-a-perspektivy-vyvoja-na-trhu-kancelarskych-nehnutelnosti-v-prahe-bratislave-a-varsave\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":22,\"commentCount\":0,\"keywords\":[\"Tiskov\u00e9 zpr\u00e1vy\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Uncategorized\"],\"inLanguage\":\"cs\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/www.pentainvestments.com\\\/cs\\\/porovnanie-sucasneho-stavu-a-perspektivy-vyvoja-na-trhu-kancelarskych-nehnutelnosti-v-prahe-bratislave-a-varsave\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.pentainvestments.com\\\/cs\\\/porovnanie-sucasneho-stavu-a-perspektivy-vyvoja-na-trhu-kancelarskych-nehnutelnosti-v-prahe-bratislave-a-varsave\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.pentainvestments.com\\\/cs\\\/porovnanie-sucasneho-stavu-a-perspektivy-vyvoja-na-trhu-kancelarskych-nehnutelnosti-v-prahe-bratislave-a-varsave\\\/\",\"name\":\"Porovnanie s\u00fa\u010dasn\u00e9ho stavu a perspekt\u00edvy v\u00fdvoja na trhu kancel\u00e1rskych nehnute\u013enost\u00ed v Prahe, Bratislave a Var\u0161ave &#8212; 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Penta Investments","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.pentainvestments.com\/cs\/porovnanie-sucasneho-stavu-a-perspektivy-vyvoja-na-trhu-kancelarskych-nehnutelnosti-v-prahe-bratislave-a-varsave\/","og_locale":"cs_CZ","og_type":"article","og_title":"Porovnanie s\u00fa\u010dasn\u00e9ho stavu a perspekt\u00edvy v\u00fdvoja na trhu kancel\u00e1rskych nehnute\u013enost\u00ed v Prahe, Bratislave a Var\u0161ave &#8212; Penta Investments","og_description":"Zhrnutie:  Najlikvidnej\u0161\u00edm a\u00a0najakt\u00edvnej\u0161\u00edm realitn\u00fdm trhom v\u00a0s\u00fa\u010dasnom obdob\u00ed v\u00a0strednej Eur\u00f3pe je Var\u0161ava, ktor\u00e1 napriek kr\u00edze za\u017e\u00edva pokra\u010duj\u00faci stavebn\u00fd boom prejavuj\u00faci sa rekordn\u00fdm objemom budov vo v\u00fdstavbe. V\u00a0najbli\u017e\u0161\u00edch 18 mesiacoch pl\u00e1nuj\u00fa developeri vo Var\u0161ave postavi\u0165 a\u017e 430\u00a0000 m2 kancel\u00e1rskej plochy. Pod\u013ea na\u0161ich odhadov by v\u00a0horizonte piatich rokov mala by\u0165 Praha schopn\u00e1 absorbova\u0165 cca 100 tis. m2 prenaj\u00edmate\u013enej kancel\u00e1rskej plochy ro\u010dne. V\u00a0Bratislave, vzh\u013eadom na s\u00fa\u010dasn\u00e9 prez\u00e1sobenie trhu, bude posta\u010duj\u00face vystava\u0165 cca 40-50 tis. m2 za rok. Otv\u00e1ra\u0165 nov\u00e9 kancel\u00e1rske lokality si dovolia len developeri s\u00a0dostatkom vo\u013en\u00fdch zdrojov a\u00a0s\u00a0dlhodob\u00fdm investi\u010dn\u00fdm horizontom. Samozrejmos\u0165ou \u00faspe\u0161n\u00fdch projektov bude vysok\u00e1 technick\u00e1 kvalita a efektivita budov sp\u013a\u0148aj\u00faca po\u017eiadavky A+ kategoriz\u00e1cie, dodr\u017eanie najnov\u0161\u00edch trendov v oblasti BMS (technick\u00e9ho zabezpe\u010denia budov), delite\u013enosti priestorov, bezpe\u010dnosti, dostupnosti \u010di pohodlia parkovania. Nevyhnutnos\u0165ou bude kategoriz\u00e1cia budov pod\u013ea niektor\u00e9ho z dostupn\u00fdch a n\u00e1jomcami preferovan\u00fdch syst\u00e9mov zelenej certifik\u00e1cie. 1. Aktu\u00e1lny stav na trhu Na z\u00e1klade aktu\u00e1lnych \u0161tatistick\u00fdch d\u00e1t bolo ku koncu j\u00fana tohto roka vo Var\u0161ave v\u00a0ponuke 3,7 mil. m2 modern\u00fdch kancel\u00e1ri\u00ed kateg\u00f3rie A\u00a0alebo B, v\u00a0Prahe to bolo 2,86 mil. m2 a\u00a0v\u00a0Bratislave 1,47 mil. m2. Vo v\u0161etk\u00fdch troch mest\u00e1ch zhodne cca 60%-70% ponuky tvoria novostavby, zvy\u0161ok s\u00fa rekon\u0161trukcie star\u0161\u00edch objektov. Miera neobsadenosti dosahovala 7,4% vo Var\u0161ave, 11,5% v\u00a0Prahe a\u00a010,7% v\u00a0Bratislave. Spolo\u010dn\u00fdm menovate\u013eom pra\u017esk\u00e9ho, bratislavsk\u00e9ho a\u00a0var\u0161avsk\u00e9ho trhu bol v\u00a0posledn\u00fdch desiatich rokoch siln\u00fd rast ponuky modern\u00fdch kancel\u00e1rskych priestorov, ktor\u00fd sa za toto obdobie vo v\u0161etk\u00fdch troch mest\u00e1ch viac ako zdvojn\u00e1sobil. Najdynamickej\u0161ie r\u00e1stla ponuka v\u00a0Bratislave (CAGR 10%), ktor\u00e1 za\u017eila developersk\u00fd boom s\u00a0miernym oneskoren\u00edm v\u00a0porovnan\u00ed s\u00a0ostatn\u00fdmi hlavn\u00fdmi mestami regi\u00f3nu Strednej Eur\u00f3py. Prudko rast\u00faca ponuka nov\u00fdch administrat\u00edvnych komplexov, vo v\u00e4\u010d\u0161ej \u010di men\u0161ej miere odr\u00e1\u017eaj\u00faca re\u00e1lne priestorov\u00e9 potreby lok\u00e1lne etablovan\u00fdch firiem, v\u0161ak bola pozna\u010den\u00e1 turbulenciami na finan\u010dn\u00fdch trhoch a\u00a0n\u00e1sledn\u00fdm n\u00e1stupom kr\u00edzy v re\u00e1lnej ekonomike. Realitn\u00fd trh bol navy\u0161e zasiahnut\u00fd zn\u00ed\u017eenou \u00faverovou kapacitou b\u00e1nk (\u017eiadne akvizi\u010dn\u00e9 financovanie, v\u00fdrazne spr\u00edsnen\u00e9 podmienky stavebn\u00e9ho a\u00a0investi\u010dn\u00e9ho financovania), \u010do malo za n\u00e1sledok o\u010distenie trhu o\u00a0tzv. leverage players (investorov financuj\u00facich v\u00fdstavbu prostredn\u00edctvom bankov\u00e9ho dlhu) a\u00a0posilnenie poz\u00edcie equity siln\u00fdch developerov schopn\u00fdch stava\u0165 \u0161pekulat\u00edvne z\u00a0vlastn\u00fdch zdrojov a bez zabezpe\u010den\u00e9ho predpren\u00e1jmu. V\u0161etky tri mest\u00e1 zaznamenali v\u00a0roku 2009 medziro\u010dn\u00fd pokles dopytu (vo Var\u0161ave sa dopyt v\u00a0roku 2009 prepadol o\u00a046%, v\u00a0Bratislave a\u017e o\u00a055%, v Prahe to bolo len o \u00a05%, av\u0161ak prepad pokra\u010doval aj roku 2010 o 13%), ktor\u00fd sa prejavil v\u00a0raste miery neobsadenosti a\u00a0v poklese nomin\u00e1lneho i\u00a0efekt\u00edvneho n\u00e1jomn\u00e9ho (n\u00e1jomn\u00e9, ktor\u00e9 je zaplaten\u00e9 po zoh\u013eadnen\u00ed zliav poskytnut\u00fdch majite\u013eom budovy; naj\u010dastej\u0161ie sa jedn\u00e1 o\u00a0n\u00e1jomn\u00e9 pr\u00e1zdniny a\u00a0dot\u00e1cie poskytnut\u00e9 na dovybavenie priestoru n\u00e1jomcu). Podiel pr\u00e1zdnych kancel\u00e1ri\u00ed na celkovej ponuke presiahol v\u00a0Prahe i\u00a0v Bratislave hranicu 10% (najvy\u0161\u0161iu neobsadenos\u0165 zachytili \u0161tatistiky za\u010diatkom roku 2010, konkr\u00e9tne 13,8% v\u00a0Prahe a 14,2% v Bratislave). Var\u0161ava, podporen\u00e1 siln\u00fdmi makroekonomick\u00fdmi fundamentmi po\u013eskej ekonomiky, zostala relat\u00edvne im\u00fanna vo\u010di glob\u00e1lnym trendom. Miera neobsadenosti s\u00edce vzr\u00e1stla, zostala v\u0161ak pod \u00farov\u0148ou 7,5%. Najvy\u0161\u0161ie dosahovan\u00e9 n\u00e1jomn\u00e9 v\u00a0obdob\u00ed vrcholiaceho realitn\u00e9ho cyklu prekra\u010dovalo vo Var\u0161ave hranicu 32 EUR\/ m2\/mesiac, v\u00a0Prahe to bolo 23 EUR\/ m2\/mesiac a\u00a0v\u00a0Bratislave 18 EUR\/ m2\/mesiac. N\u00e1sledne kleslo o\u00a05%-15% k\u00a0hranici, na ktorej sa udr\u017euje aj v\u00a0s\u00fa\u010dasnosti. \u010co ofici\u00e1lne \u0161tatistiky neboli schopn\u00e9 zachyti\u0165, bol ove\u013ea v\u00fdraznej\u0161\u00ed pokles efekt\u00edvneho n\u00e1jomn\u00e9ho, ktor\u00e9 v\u00a0z\u00e1vislosti od projektu a\u00a0mikrolokality kleslo od 10%-30%. 2. Odhad bud\u00faceho v\u00fdvoja Najlikvidnej\u0161\u00edm a\u00a0najakt\u00edvnej\u0161\u00edm realitn\u00fdm trhom v\u00a0s\u00fa\u010dasnom obdob\u00ed v\u00a0Strednej Eur\u00f3pe je Var\u0161ava, ktor\u00e1 napriek kr\u00edze za\u017e\u00edva pokra\u010duj\u00faci stavebn\u00fd boom prejavuj\u00faci sa rekordn\u00fdm objemom budov vo v\u00fdstavbe (v najbli\u017e\u0161\u00edch 18 mesiacoch pl\u00e1nuj\u00fa developeri vystava\u0165 viac ako 430 000 m2 nov\u00fdch kancel\u00e1rskych priestorov, pri\u010dom\u00a0do konca roku 2014 by stock mohol vzr\u00e1s\u0165 a\u017e o\u00a020% v\u00a0porovnan\u00ed so s\u00fa\u010dasn\u00fdm stavom). Var\u0161ava predstavuje jednozna\u010dne najsilnej\u0161\u00ed leasingov\u00fd trh v regi\u00f3ne, ke\u010f v\u00a0minulom roku sa v\u00a0meste prenajalo rekordn\u00fdch 573 tis\u00edc m2 (30% tvorili renegoci\u00e1cie n\u00e1jomn\u00fdch zml\u00fav). V\u00a0roku 2012 sa\u00a0pravdepodobne dosiahne porovnate\u013en\u00fd objem hrub\u00e9ho dopytu. Napriek tomu v\u0161ak kon\u0161tatujeme, \u017ee z\u00a0kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9ho h\u013eadiska Var\u0161ava vykazuje znaky prehriatia trhu, \u010do bude ma\u0165 vplyv na rast neobsadenosti a\u00a0pokles n\u00e1jomn\u00e9ho, a to predov\u0161etk\u00fdm v\u00a0menej atrakt\u00edvnych resp. sekund\u00e1rnych lokalit\u00e1ch (napr. Mokot\u00f3w, Ochota, Wlochy, Wola). V\u00a0CBD (v lokalite s\u00a0najv\u00e4\u010d\u0161ou koncentr\u00e1ciou atrakt\u00edvnych administrat\u00edvnych priestorov) o\u010dak\u00e1vame vzh\u013eadom na relat\u00edvne obmedzen\u00fd pipeline stabiliz\u00e1ciu nomin\u00e1lneho n\u00e1jomn\u00e9ho s\u00a0miernym poklesom efekt\u00edvneho n\u00e1jomn\u00e9ho. Miera neobsadenosti bude kr\u00e1tkodobo r\u00e1s\u0165, v\u00a0horizonte najbli\u017e\u0161\u00edch piatich rokov by v\u0161ak nemala prekro\u010di\u0165 10%. Pod\u013ea na\u0161ich odhadov by zo stredno- a\u00a0dlhodob\u00e9ho h\u013eadiska Var\u0161ava mala by\u0165 schopn\u00e1 ro\u010dne absorbova\u0165 160-180 tis\u00edc m2 nov\u00fdch pl\u00f4ch bez tlaku na rast neobsadenosti a\u00a0pokles n\u00e1jomn\u00e9ho. Prahu a\u00a0Bratislavu zasiahla kr\u00edza podstatne v\u00fdraznej\u0161ie. Okrem poklesu n\u00e1jomn\u00e9ho do\u0161lo v\u00a0oboch mest\u00e1ch k\u00a0prudk\u00e9mu prepadu novej v\u00fdstavby. A\u017e na p\u00e1r v\u00fdnimiek vo v\u00fdstavbe s\u00fa len projekty siln\u00fdch developerov pripraven\u00fdch stava\u0165 bez bankov\u00e9ho financovania, schopn\u00fdch prelomi\u0165 za\u010darovan\u00fd kruh, ke\u010f firmy nie s\u00fa ochotn\u00e9 viaza\u0165 sa k\u00a0projektom v\u00a0pr\u00edpravnej f\u00e1ze, \u010do n\u00e1sledne limituje schopnos\u0165 developerov z\u00edska\u0165 extern\u00e9 financovanie na v\u00fdstavbu. Z\u00a0toho d\u00f4vodu bude v\u00a0roku 2013 v\u00a0Prahe skolaudovan\u00fdch len cca 70-75 tis. m2 kancel\u00e1rskych pl\u00f4ch, v\u00a0Bratislave len cca 35-40 tis. m2, \u010do je menej ne\u017e polovica priemeru posledn\u00fdch piatich rokov. Z\u00a0kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9ho h\u013eadiska preto na t\u00fdchto trhoch o\u010dak\u00e1vame v\u00fdrazne men\u0161\u00ed tlak na pokles n\u00e1jomn\u00e9ho ne\u017e vo Var\u0161ave. Faktorom tla\u010diacim na pokles n\u00e1jomn\u00e9ho je predov\u0161etk\u00fdm vysok\u00fd podiel renegoci\u00e1ci\u00ed (a\u017e do 40%) na hrubom dopyte. N\u00e1jomn\u00edci s\u00fa v\u00a0s\u00fa\u010dasn\u00fdch podmienkach schopn\u00ed vyjedna\u0165 v\u00a0oboch mest\u00e1ch v\u00fdhodnej\u0161ie n\u00e1jomn\u00e9 podmienky ne\u017e pred tromi rokmi. Pokra\u010duj\u00face \u00fasporn\u00e9 opatrenia firiem n\u00fatia landlordov zni\u017eova\u0165 svoje o\u010dak\u00e1vania predov\u0161etk\u00fdm v\u00a0star\u0161\u00edch (viac ako 5 ro\u010dn\u00fdch) budov\u00e1ch. Zo strednodob\u00e9ho h\u013eadiska nomin\u00e1lne n\u00e1jomn\u00e9 zostane stabiln\u00e9, hlavn\u00fdm potenci\u00e1lnym zdrojom jeho rastu bude o\u010dak\u00e1van\u00e1 zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e1 infl\u00e1cia v\u00a0Euroz\u00f3ne. Pod\u013ea na\u0161ich odhadov by v\u00a0horizonte piatich rokov mala by\u0165 Praha schopn\u00e1 absorbova\u0165 cca 100 tis. m2 ro\u010dne. V\u00a0Bratislave vzh\u013eadom na s\u00fa\u010dasn\u00e9 prez\u00e1sobenie trhu bude posta\u010duj\u00face vystava\u0165 cca 40-50 tis. m2 za rok. Za t\u00fdchto predpokladov by sa miera neobsadenosti nemala v\u00fdraznej\u0161ie odchy\u013eova\u0165 od 10%. O\u010dak\u00e1vame, \u017ee podiel renegoci\u00e1ci\u00ed na \u00farovni 30% sa stane be\u017enou s\u00fa\u010das\u0165ou trhu. Pr\u00edle\u017eitos\u0165ou pre developerov vo v\u0161etk\u00fdch troch mest\u00e1ch bud\u00fa okrem build-to-suit (budov postaven\u00fdch na mieru vopred zn\u00e1memu konkr\u00e9tnemu n\u00e1jomcovi) aj \u0161pekulat\u00edvne projekty v\u00a0rozvinut\u00fdch business centr\u00e1ch s\u00a0kvalitnou a vybudovanou infra\u0161trukt\u00farou a\u00a0dobrou dopravnou dostupnos\u0165ou. St\u00e1le atrakt\u00edvne zostan\u00fa centr\u00e1 resp. CBD jednotliv\u00fdch miest, zv\u00e4\u010d\u0161a s\u00a0v\u00fdrazne limitovanou dostupnos\u0165ou vhodn\u00fdch pozemkov (hlavne v\u00a0Prahe). Otv\u00e1ra\u0165 nov\u00e9 kancel\u00e1rske lokality si dovolia len developeri s\u00a0dostatkom vo\u013en\u00fdch zdrojov a\u00a0s\u00a0dlhodob\u00fdm investi\u010dn\u00fdm horizontom. Pr\u00edle\u017eitos\u0165ou v\u00a0tomto smere s\u00fa okrajov\u00e9 mestsk\u00e9 \u010dasti s\u00a0dostupnos\u0165ou lacn\u00fdch pozemkov. Samozrejmos\u0165ou je vysok\u00e1 technick\u00e1 kvalita a\u00a0efektivita budov sp\u013a\u0148aj\u00faca po\u017eiadavky A+ kategoriz\u00e1cie, dodr\u017eanie najnov\u0161\u00edch trendov v\u00a0oblasti BMS, delite\u013enosti priestorov, bezpe\u010dnosti, dostupnosti, \u010di pohodlia parkovania. Nevyhnutnos\u0165ou bude kategoriz\u00e1cia budov pod\u013ea niektor\u00e9ho z\u00a0dostupn\u00fdch a\u00a0n\u00e1jomcami preferovan\u00fdch syst\u00e9mov zelenej certifik\u00e1cie. V\u00a0neposlednom rade je nutn\u00e9 poznamena\u0165, \u017ee k\u013e\u00fa\u010dov\u00fdm faktorom bud\u00faceho v\u00fdvoja resp. o\u017eivenia realitn\u00e9ho trhu bude zvl\u00e1dnutie aktu\u00e1lnych makroekonomick\u00fdch v\u00fdziev v\u00a0glob\u00e1lnej a\u00a0najm\u00e4 eur\u00f3pskej ekonomike.","og_url":"https:\/\/www.pentainvestments.com\/cs\/porovnanie-sucasneho-stavu-a-perspektivy-vyvoja-na-trhu-kancelarskych-nehnutelnosti-v-prahe-bratislave-a-varsave\/","og_site_name":"Penta Investments","article_published_time":"2012-09-13T08:02:00+00:00","author":"Peter Blasbalg","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Napsal(a)":"Peter Blasbalg"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/www.pentainvestments.com\/cs\/porovnanie-sucasneho-stavu-a-perspektivy-vyvoja-na-trhu-kancelarskych-nehnutelnosti-v-prahe-bratislave-a-varsave\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.pentainvestments.com\/cs\/porovnanie-sucasneho-stavu-a-perspektivy-vyvoja-na-trhu-kancelarskych-nehnutelnosti-v-prahe-bratislave-a-varsave\/"},"author":{"name":"Peter Blasbalg","@id":"https:\/\/www.pentainvestments.com\/en\/#\/schema\/person\/2b5af56613b6f0b2968a1eb1570816e7"},"headline":"Porovnanie s\u00fa\u010dasn\u00e9ho stavu a perspekt\u00edvy v\u00fdvoja na trhu kancel\u00e1rskych nehnute\u013enost\u00ed v Prahe, Bratislave a Var\u0161ave","datePublished":"2012-09-13T08:02:00+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.pentainvestments.com\/cs\/porovnanie-sucasneho-stavu-a-perspektivy-vyvoja-na-trhu-kancelarskych-nehnutelnosti-v-prahe-bratislave-a-varsave\/"},"wordCount":22,"commentCount":0,"keywords":["Tiskov\u00e9 zpr\u00e1vy"],"articleSection":["Uncategorized"],"inLanguage":"cs","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/www.pentainvestments.com\/cs\/porovnanie-sucasneho-stavu-a-perspektivy-vyvoja-na-trhu-kancelarskych-nehnutelnosti-v-prahe-bratislave-a-varsave\/#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.pentainvestments.com\/cs\/porovnanie-sucasneho-stavu-a-perspektivy-vyvoja-na-trhu-kancelarskych-nehnutelnosti-v-prahe-bratislave-a-varsave\/","url":"https:\/\/www.pentainvestments.com\/cs\/porovnanie-sucasneho-stavu-a-perspektivy-vyvoja-na-trhu-kancelarskych-nehnutelnosti-v-prahe-bratislave-a-varsave\/","name":"Porovnanie s\u00fa\u010dasn\u00e9ho stavu a perspekt\u00edvy v\u00fdvoja na trhu kancel\u00e1rskych nehnute\u013enost\u00ed v Prahe, Bratislave a Var\u0161ave &#8212; 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